Publicación: ASSESSMENT OF THE FORECASTING CAPACITY OF THE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS IN COMPANIES LISTED ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE IN CHILE AND BRAZIL
Fecha
2021
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AHFE 2021 PROCEEDINGS BOOKS
Resumen
IN THIS RESEARCH, THE BANKRUPTCY SITUATION OF COMPANIES LISTED ON THE SANTIAGO DE CHILE STOCK EXCHANGE AND THE SÃO PAULO STOCK EXCHANGE ARE TESTED, THROUGH MODELS: Z-SCORE, LOGIT AND PROBIT, COMPARING THE FORECAST OF THE COMPANIES CLASSIFIED AS LIKELY TO FAIL, IN ORDER TO ASSESS WHETHER THE MODELS COULD ANTICIPATE A POSSIBLE CRISIS SITUATION. THE RESULTS INDICATE THAT, FOR THE YEAR 2016, THE BANKRUPTCY OF 13 CHILEAN COMPANIES AND 59 BRAZILIAN COMPANIES, MOSTLY BELONGING TO THE CONSTRUCTION AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN BOTH COUNTRIES, WAS FORECAST. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE Z-SCORE AND Z1 MODELS WOULD BE MORE APPLICABLE TO THE ECONOMIES UNDER STUDY, AS THEY WERE CORRECT IN THE FORECAST OF ALL CHILEAN COMPANIES AND 49 BRAZILIAN COMPANIES, AND IT IS ALWAYS NECESSARY TO COMPLEMENT THE TOOLS ORIENTED TO FINANCIAL ANALYSIS.
