Publicación: FORECASTING COVID-19 CHILE SECOND OUTBREAK BY A GENERALIZED SIR MODEL WITH CONSTANT TIME DELAYS AND A FITTED POSITIVITY RATE
| dc.creator | PATRICIO ANDRÉS CUMSILLE ATALA | |
| dc.date | 2021 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-01-10T15:22:59Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-01-10T15:22:59Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.description.abstract | THE COVID-19 DISEASE HAS FORCED COUNTRIES TO MAKE A CONSIDERABLE COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SCIENTISTS AND GOVERNMENTS TO PROVIDE INDICATORS TO SUITABLE FOLLOW-UP THE PANDEMIC?S CONSEQUENCES. MATHEMATICAL MODELING PLAYS A CRUCIAL ROLE IN QUANTIFYING INDICATORS DESCRIBING DIVERSE ASPECTS OF THE PANDEMIC. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WORK AIMS TO DEVELOP A CLEAR, EFFICIENT, AND REPRODUCIBLE METHODOLOGY FOR PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION, WHOSE IMPLEMENTATION IS ILLUSTRATED USING DATA FROM THREE REPRESENTATIVE REGIONS FROM CHILE AND A SUITABLE GENERALIZED SIR MODEL TOGETHER WITH A FITTED POSITIVITY RATE. OUR RESULTS REPRODUCE THE GENERAL TREND OF THE INFECTED?S CURVE, DISTINGUISHING THE REPORTED AND REAL CASES. FINALLY, OUR METHODOLOGY IS ROBUST, AND IT ALLOWS US TO FORECAST A SECOND OUTBREAK OF COVID-19 AND THE INFECTION FATALITY RATE OF COVID-19 QUALITATIVELY ACCORDING TO THE REPORTED DEAD CASES. | |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.matcom.2021.09.016 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1872-7166 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0378-4754 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repositorio.ubiobio.cl/handle/123456789/11751 | |
| dc.language | spa | |
| dc.publisher | MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTERS IN SIMULATION | |
| dc.relation.uri | 10.1016/j.matcom.2021.09.016 | |
| dc.rights | PUBLICADA | |
| dc.title | FORECASTING COVID-19 CHILE SECOND OUTBREAK BY A GENERALIZED SIR MODEL WITH CONSTANT TIME DELAYS AND A FITTED POSITIVITY RATE | |
| dc.title.alternative | PRONÓSTICO DEL SEGUNDO BROTE DE COVID-19 EN CHILE MEDIANTE UN MODELO SIR GENERALIZADO CON RETRASOS CONSTANTES Y UNA TASA DE POSITIVIDAD AJUSTADA | |
| dc.type | ARTÍCULO | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| oaire.fundingReference | UBB- UNIVERSIDAD DEL BÍO-BÍO | |
| ubb.Estado | PUBLICADA | |
| ubb.Otra Reparticion | DEPARTAMENTO DE CIENCIAS BASICAS | |
| ubb.Sede | CHILLÁN |
