Publicación: FORECASTING COVID-19 CHILE SECOND OUTBREAK BY A GENERALIZED SIR MODEL WITH CONSTANT TIME DELAYS AND A FITTED POSITIVITY RATE
Fecha
2021
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MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTERS IN SIMULATION
Resumen
THE COVID-19 DISEASE HAS FORCED COUNTRIES TO MAKE A CONSIDERABLE COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SCIENTISTS AND GOVERNMENTS TO PROVIDE INDICATORS TO SUITABLE FOLLOW-UP THE PANDEMIC?S CONSEQUENCES. MATHEMATICAL MODELING PLAYS A CRUCIAL ROLE IN QUANTIFYING INDICATORS DESCRIBING DIVERSE ASPECTS OF THE PANDEMIC. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WORK AIMS TO DEVELOP A CLEAR, EFFICIENT, AND REPRODUCIBLE METHODOLOGY FOR PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION, WHOSE IMPLEMENTATION IS ILLUSTRATED USING DATA FROM THREE REPRESENTATIVE REGIONS FROM CHILE AND A SUITABLE GENERALIZED SIR MODEL TOGETHER WITH A FITTED POSITIVITY RATE. OUR RESULTS REPRODUCE THE GENERAL TREND OF THE INFECTED?S CURVE, DISTINGUISHING THE REPORTED AND REAL CASES. FINALLY, OUR METHODOLOGY IS ROBUST, AND IT ALLOWS US TO FORECAST A SECOND OUTBREAK OF COVID-19 AND THE INFECTION FATALITY RATE OF COVID-19 QUALITATIVELY ACCORDING TO THE REPORTED DEAD CASES.
